Mental models can be useful tools for navigating the complex world of reality. There are advantages and disadvantages to each model. With their proper application, they can help us become more intelligent, expand our horizons, learn more about the world, and improve our decision-making abilities.
An oversimplified picture of a more complex world is a map.
We use mental models to make sense of the world. In order to find location we use map. This well-known navigational tool shows the advantages, disadvantages, and fundamental characteristics of mental models, as obvious as they may be. Thus, it is an excellent starting point.
A map’s function is to provide a practical representation of the world around us. In order for a map to serve this function, it
must zero in on specific features of reality while omitting all others. In order to find your way around the Delhi Connaught Place, for example, all you need is a map depicting the general arrangement of the Roads and metro stations. It only needs a basic grid of circles and lines to accomplish the task.
The final map, that intricate web of roads and circles, obviously omits many specifics. I can’t help but mention that. If you want to know why, just picture yourself attempting to draw a map of the Delhi Connaught Place down to the smallest detail, including the every shop, walkway, shops and gardens. Neither the size nor the complexity of such a map would make it useful for getting from one location to another; in other words, it would be totally impracticable.
Because of this, we prefer maps that do not depict all details of the world. However, we must not lose sight of the fact
that it omits numerous information. We could care less about a lot of things, like the train lines’ nuts and bolts. However, you should
remember a few of them. Anyone who has ever walked into a lamppost while staring at their phone’s map can attest to this. Another reason to always use an up-to-date map is in case your GPS has ever directed you to a closed route.
All maps, literal and metaphorical, can benefit from these principles. Everything from financial reports and policy documents to parenting guides and news articles presents a simplified version of reality, like a map. To provide just one example, a company’s financial statement consolidates what would otherwise be thousands of transactions into a single, concise document.
We rely on these simplifications to help us navigate the intricate world we live in. On the other hand, they can mislead us and get us in problems if we fail to keep them up-to-date with the world as it develops and if we neglect to consider what they don’t include.
Circle of Competence
Whether it’s cooking techniques, stock market investing advice, or the ins and outs of climbing Mount Everest, the sum of all human practical knowledge is like a wide and diverse landscape. Whether it’s a recipe, an investment handbook, or a climbing guide, you’ll need a map to traverse most of this terrain.
But there will be some locations where you won’t need a map at all. All of these areas are within your sphere of competence, and they represent the abilities you’ve developed via time spent learning and working hard.
Within your area of expertise, you can confidently navigate the world. When faced with adversity, you are prepared and know what to do. However, you’ll feel more like an outcast whenever you step outside of this circle. As a mechanic, you’ll be at home when you get your hands dirty with an automobile’s engine. It will be possible for you to identify the source of any engine issues. To someone who isn’t mechanically inclined, though, the task may appear as perplexing as brain surgery.
To achieve success, you must be aware of the boundaries of your circle of expertise. We all have things about which we don’t know much, and no one can possibly know everything. It’s alright. Truthfully assessing our limitations is all that’s required. That way, we can play to our strengths and get assistance when we need it.
Imagine you have an entrepreneurial spirit but a serious math problem. A financial advisor could be a good choice. The topic of financial literacy is another one that you might want to research. Even if you never become an expert, you will have a good grasp of the fundamentals. That way, you may navigate beyond your comfort zone without feeling completely lost.
It is important to be aware of your surroundings, though. Our inflated sense of our own spheres of expertise is a sad consequence of our inflated sense of self-importance. Consequently, we may overestimate our abilities and go too far beyond our capabilities when we step outside of them. Imagine 200 frozen corpses strewn across the Everest slopes; that should be enough to make you realize this is a serious problem. Their owners were all self-assured individuals who believed they could overcome any obstacle.
Think beyond the box and apply First Principles
Concentrating on what you’re good at allows you to play to your strengths. Being competent isn’t enough to guarantee success, though. Imagination is also essential. You need to use your imagination, even though that statement sounds trite. If you don’t change, you’ll just wind up following the crowd. But how can you differentiate yourself from the crowd?
Digging deep is the key. You can find what you’re looking for in any field of study if you delve far enough.
The body of knowledge in any given subject is based on what are known as first principles. As a basic principle, the laws of thermodynamics would guide an engineer in their quest to construct a refrigerator that uses less energy. These are the barest essentials of reality that your fridge must face.
Finding first principles can lead to innovative solutions, even in less apparent domains. For the sake of argument, pretend you’re a scientist investigating the issue of meat excess. One way to tackle this issue would be to focus on reducing its impact. One possibility is to find solutions that reduce the negative effects of cattle production on the environment.
Another angle from which to view the issue is to inquire, “What are the first principles of meat consumption?” Beginning in the 1970s, that is what the scientific community accomplished. They came to the realization that the aroma and flavor of meat are the most significant aspects for customers. Chemical features and reactions, like the one between sugars and amino acids during cooking, determine these meat characteristics in the end. The fact that it is animal-derived is secondary, though.
Realizing this, scientists set out to develop methods of producing lab-grown food that might pass for real meat while largely eliminating the need to rear and slaughter animals. The result is artificial meat. In the present day, some 30 laboratories across the globe are working on the creation of synthetic meat. Livestock farming may become obsolete in the future due of this meat.
By starting with the most fundamental assumptions, or “first principles,” you can lessen the likelihood that an issue will arise. That’s because, instead of focusing on the symptoms, you’re attempting to resolve the root causes of the issue. This will allow you to think beyond the box and find an answer that gets to the heart of the matter.
Apply Inversion
Put yourself in the shoes of a 1920s American Tobacco Company advertising executive. Since the majority of smokers are male, your mission at Lucky Strike is to increase sales to female customers. Ignoring any ethical concerns, what would you do to accomplish this?
That was a problem that the Austrian-American trailblazer in propaganda and public relations, Edward Bernays, had to deal with at one point. The next mental model we’ll examine is how he solved it. An inversion is a neat little trick that entails inverting the typical way of addressing problems.
When it comes to inversion, there are two main approaches. The first is to start with the premise that something is true and prove it by demonstrating what else has to be true in order for it to be true.
Consider Edward Bernays again. Following these lines of thought was where he began. So, let’s pretend for a second that women actually smoke just as much as males. Then what else could possibly be true? Then it hit him: for women to smoke, they have to think it’s cool and desired. Furthermore, this can only occur if smoking is associated with other positive and socially acceptable traits.
After that, Bernays got to work creating this connection. Lucky Strike smokes, he portrayed in his ads, could stand in for dessert after supper—a sophisticated way to keep a trim figure. He promoted them further by calling them “torches of freedom.” As the women’s rights movement gained momentum, Bernays promoted smoking as a symbol of women’s autonomy.
That is one route to inversion, then. If you want to know how one works, just turn the other one around. This time, you see what else would have to be true for this scenario to materialize by assuming the opposite of what you want to accomplish.
So, you aspire to amass vast wealth. Here, you’d pretend you’re destitute and figure out what you could do to improve your financial situation by working backwards. Examples of this would be engaging in spending beyond one’s income or taking out loans with exorbitant interest rates. Gathering all of these actions will help you avoid doing things that will hinder your path to financial success.
Try Thought Experiments for different scenarios.
There is no end to the number of original ideas you can generate now that you know inversion and fundamental thinking. My hope is that they’ll focus less on encouraging smoking and more on producing synthetic meat. You should likely practice them in your mind before putting them to the test in the actual world.
The benefits of thought experiments, or experiments conducted in one’s mind, over physical tests are readily apparent. To start, you can picture yourself taking chances without making anyone else pay the price. Additionally, there is no limit to the number of times you can perform thought experiments free of charge. This also makes it feasible to perform tests that would have been extremely difficult or even impossible to do before.
Think about what would happen if, for instance, you confined a person in an elevator, fastened his feet to the floor, secretly sent the elevator into space, and then rapidly hauled it upwards. Can he really begin to fathom that he is in space? On the other hand, could he imagine that he was still subject to the force of gravity from Earth ?
Though it may appear absurd now, Albert Einstein used this thought experiment to develop his theory of general relativity. He knew the answer was no; the sensations from the two events would be identical. He was able to clarify his thoughts of gravity as a result of this.
mind experiments can also aid in clarity of mind by letting us consider the outcomes of hypothetical, implausible situations.
Think of the age-old inquiry, “What would you do if money were no object?” as an example. Money will probably always be an issue in our lives, so the subject may seem trivial; perhaps it’s simply a good conversation starter at a cocktail party or on a date. However, it is also capable of serving as a profound analysis. The reason behind this is that when we engage our imagination, we exclude the factor of money from our decision-making equation. This frees us from the need to consider our desires in relation to monetary gain.
Perhaps you would leave your work. Perhaps you’d cultivate a stronger social circle. Perhaps you would pick up the guitar. Perhaps none of the above will do. No matter how you choose to respond, the question helps you to better understand your life’s priorities.
Use Second-Order Thinking.
Just pretend you’re a lotto winner! As a first step, what would you do? Imagine you purchase a larger home. Amazing, however you should think about how this choice will impact your life moving forward. More time spent cleaning is one example. The alternative is to pay someone to clean the house.
In any case, you’ve progressed from considering an action’s potential outcomes—as in a thought experiment—to considering those outcomes’ potential outcomes—and then some. Think of this as second-order thinking.
Apply second-order reasoning to evaluate your choices and strengthen your claims; that is the main takeaway.
Looking at the issues that can develop when second-order thinking is lacking should be enough to convince anyone of its significance. Think about how the livestock sector uses antibiotics excessively. Primarily concerned with the immediate effects, farmers began dosing their livestock with antibiotics. They were only interested in larger cattle because it would increase their earnings. The second-order repercussions, however, arrived thereafter. Because not all bacterial strains were able to withstand the antibiotic assault, some persisted and eventually became the dominant species. What was the outcome? Antibiotic-resistant microorganisms invading our food web.
Unintentional as they may have been, that is precisely the purpose. Unless we’ve thought about the possible second-order effects of our judgments, we haven’t given them much consideration. The same holds true for the potential adverse effects of antibiotic misuse. So, it would be wise to reconsider our decisions.
Maybe the expenses in the long run will be more than the gains in the short run. As an example, it’s true that the first-order effects of sugar have improved the flavor of that daily candy bar. But are you really prepared to deal with the second-order health consequences of giving in to your sweet desire on a frequent basis in the next decade?
Don’t let that put you off. Positive second-order outcomes are also possible. If that is so, we can utilize them to support our case for taking action, which would be a very beneficial course of action. After all, it’s not uncommon to need other people’s approval before you can move forward with a decent decision. Maybe you need to get your spouse on board with a fresh approach to parenting or convince your boss to approve of a new project. No matter what the situation is, you can win over others by highlighting the favorable second-order implications.
This is precisely what the pioneering feminist philosopher Mary Wollstonecraft set out to do in her seminal essay, A Vindication of the Rights of Woman. Equal rights for women, she said, would have positive second-order effects for society overall and was therefore the proper thing to do from a moral standpoint. Women could improve as citizens, for instance, with the help of a formal education.
Make better-informed decisions by applying Probabilistic Reasoning.
Unpleasant second-order outcomes are not uncommon. You shouldn’t, however, go overboard protecting yourself from them. You can envision a myriad of terrible outcomes with any certain behavior. But if you dwell on them too much, you might freeze up with hesitation or jump to hasty judgments.
The slippery slope effect is a name for it. At one point, you’re considering the many bad outcomes that could result from alcohol consumption, such as alcoholism. Prohibition will be in your future, before you realize it! It would be excessive to do that. Alcoholism is a real possibility, although it is by no means inevitable. By considering the likelihood of various outcomes, we may control our anxieties and make more reasonable judgments about the impact of our actions.
Learning the ins and outs of Bayesian updating is a great first step in improving your probabilistic reasoning skills. Here, the gist is that we have data about the globe at our fingertips. We should make good use of the minimal information we have since it is useful. In other words, we should always consider new information in the context of what we already know before drawing any firm conclusions.
As an example, imagine you pick up a newspaper and see the headline, “Violent Crime Skyrocketing.” Your occupation? Have a nervous breakdown and stay home forever?
If you think like a Bayesian, then no. Then you’ll keep in mind that violent crime has been on the decline for quite some time. Thus, the crime rate may have barely shifted from 0.01% to 0.02% last year, even if it had doubled. This would indicate that the number of victims of violent crime has increased to 2 per 10,000. You shouldn’t freak out over it, even if it would be terrible for those two individuals. Even now, the odds of you being a victim are incredibly low.
But it doesn’t imply we should ignore fresh data in favor of what we already know. Our knowledge of the world must evolve as the world itself does.
If you still think the crime rate is low, the news article about violent crime “skyrocketing” won’t change your mind much. If this is correct, it means the rate is slightly greater than you anticipated. Additionally, you should only make a small adjustment to your belief. However, if the rate keeps going up and you keep seeing the same headline, you’d have to start believing something new: the crime rate is now high. And if that’s the case, perhaps you ought to exercise caution whenever you venture outdoors.
Occam’s Razor
Picture this: you’re sick with a cold one morning. You do what any reasonable person would do and research your symptoms; you find that they may be due to the flu or Ebola. Whose version is more credible? We need to know the solution. It’s like deciding between getting out of bed and entering quarantine.
You can’t use probabilistic reasoning, where you consider each piece of evidence separately, in this case. Two broad interpretations of the available evidence are now before you.
Use Occam’s razor to slash through this kind of difficulty.
The main point is that if there are multiple equally plausible explanations, the simplest one is more likely to be correct (Occam’s razor).
If two competing explanations appear to fit the data equally, the simpler one is more likely to be correct, according to Occam’s razor. Compared to the simpler explanation, the more complex one relies on a larger number of assumptions. This explanation loses credibility with the inclusion of each new variable.
Picture this: your friend isn’t in touch and hasn’t shown up to your party. Perhaps he was in a car accident, but that would necessitate a lot of assumptions to be correct. He left the house, didn’t he? Instead of walking or taking a bus, did he drive a car? Is it possible that he or another driver was mistaken? Is an accident the result of that mistake? For the explanation to hold water, each of these questions must have a yes answer.
Just being late is the easier and more probable reason. Just a little mistake, like not checking the time, would be enough for that to be true.
Unexpected events, such as car accidents, can occur when a number of factors coincide. This in no way implies that your friend couldn’t possibly have a car accident. The main idea is that more frequently than not, simpler explanations are correct. So, it’s safer to go with the easier explanation.
Let us return to our main issue now. Do not panic over a fever unless you are a resident of or have just visited an area where an Ebola outbreak is underway. Could it happen, in theory, that you got Ebola through a web of interconnected things? Certainly, but the illness is the easier and more likely reason.
Hanlon’s Razor
With Occam’s razor, we may easily pick between conflicting explanations of everything, from fatal illnesses to simple tardiness. However, there is a wide variety of human behavior, thus there will be occasions when a different kind of blade is required. Finally, we arrive at our last mental model: Hanlon’s razor.
Compared to Occam’s razor, Hanlon’s razor is more like a cousin. The more well-known relative of Hanlon’s razor, the simpler explanation is usually the safest bet, as previously mentioned. But then it changes things in a unique way.
The main point is that, as per Hanlon’s razor, foolishness, not evil intent, is the most probable and easiest way to explain bad behavior.
Plot your route in a moving vehicle. You’re relaxedly going along when suddenly another motorist swerves to avoid you. Think about what could be causing her behavior before you let your road rage get the best of you.
One of them is that she behaved maliciously. What this means is that you might infer that she is acting maliciously. However, that would be contingent upon a number of other conditions being satisfied. In order for her to have intentionally cut you off, she would have had to observe your vehicle, decide to act on that wish, devise a plan to pass you, and then control her own vehicle accordingly.
The easier way to put it? There was only one slip-up. Not even she noticed you.
The main point is that people who commit deliberate misconduct usually put in a lot of effort and give it a lot of consideration. The only things needed to commit a mistake are a lack of knowledge, excessive procrastination, carelessness, or poor judgment.
This is not to suggest that bad deeds are never intentional. The fact that this is an outlier serves as a useful caution. People aren’t constantly trying to hurt us, even when they mistreat us. It’s hard to believe, but it’s true.
Instead, they’re usually just clumsily making their way through life, stepping on the toes of others along the way, much like the rest of us. In spite of the fact that it hurts when their toes end up on our own, we shouldn’t take things personally or assume the worst when they don’t.
So, instead of losing our composure and giving in to road rage, we should do our best to handle the issue calmly. After that, we need to get back to living our lives.