Why do some ideas take over the world while others barely make it past the group chat? Think viral food trends, groovy songs, or even big movements like sustainability or minimalism. Malcolm Gladwell in his latest book explains how trends spread like diseases and if you want to go viral its all about identifying tipping point. Yep, just like how a virus goes from one person to thousands, ideas and behaviors can spread in society in similar ways.
This isn’t just a cool theory—it’s a way to understand how influence works and why some things blow up while others stay lowkey. From bank robberies in ‘80s Los Angeles to vaccine skepticism in California and even the COVID-19 superspreader events, there’s a lot to unpack. By the end of this, you’ll start seeing patterns behind everything from Youtube trends to social movements.
The Wild Bank Robbery Craze in Los Angeles
Let’s start with one of the wildest crime sprees in American history. In the ‘80s and ‘90s, L.A. wasn’t just the City of Angels—it was the unofficial Bank Robbery Capital of the World.
On November 29, 1983, the FBI’s L.A. field office got six separate calls about bank robberies in just a few hours. The suspect? A guy they dubbed the “Yankee Bandit,” known for his Southern accent and a Yankees baseball cap. He hit six banks in one afternoon, setting a world record.
Just two decades earlier, experts thought bank robbery was a dying art. A study in the ‘60s concluded that the risks were too high, and banks had gotten way too secure. They figured only people with “nothing to lose” would even attempt it but they were wrong.
By the ‘80s, bank robberies had quintupled. At its peak in the mid-’90s, a quarter of all bank heists in the U.S. were happening in L.A. And these weren’t small-time jobs either. Early robbers were polite, handing notes to tellers and walking out with cash. But by the second wave, robbers were rolling in with assault rifles, targeting vaults, and walking away with millions.
One guy, Robert “Caspar” Brown, took it to a whole new level. Over four years, he hit 175 banks, setting another world record. Caspar wasn’t just stealing cash—he was unintentionally creating a trend. His success inspired copycats, and by 1992, L.A. averaged one bank robbery every 45 minutes during business hours.
This trend didn’t spread to other cities. L.A. was its own bubble. Epidemiologists would call people like Caspar “superspreaders”—individuals who disproportionately drive a trend or outbreak.
Vermont’s Bizarre Healthcare Habits
In Vermont during the ‘60s a government researcher named John Wennberg was tasked with mapping healthcare quality across the state. What he found was a head-scratcher.
In one town, kids were three times more likely to have their appendixes removed compared to kids in a neighboring town just 10 miles away.
Wennberg called this “small-area variation,” and it wasn’t just a Vermont thing. Across the U.S., medical practices varied wildly. And it wasn’t about patient needs or money—it boiled down to what local doctors were into.
For example, if a town’s doctors believed tonsils were a problem, a ton of kids got their tonsils removed. If the doctors didn’t? Barely any surgeries. It was less about medical science and more about community habits, almost like an invisible trend influencing healthcare decisions.
Vaccine Skepticism and the Power of Overstories
In California a different kind of trend was happening. In private schools following the Waldorf educational philosophy, vaccination rates were shockingly low.
You might think anti-vax parents are drawn to these schools, but anthropologist Elisa Sobo found the opposite. Parents who join these schools often start out pro-vaccine. Over time, though, they become more skeptical, especially with their younger kids.
This happens because of what Malcolm Gladwell calls an “overstory.” Think of an overstory as the collective belief system that defines a group. For Waldorf schools, the overstory is all about questioning mainstream norms and finding your own path.
When parents enter this community, they absorb its values, even if they didn’t start with them. The Waldorf mindset encourages curiosity and skepticism, which makes parents more likely to question vaccines.
The Biogen Superspreader Event
In January 2020 in Boston a student returns from Wuhan, China, lands at Logan Airport, and goes about their day. No masks, no social distancing—it was pre-pandemic life as usual. But here’s the twist: this didn’t cause an outbreak.
Fast forward a month to February 26, 2020. Biogen, a biotech company, holds its annual leadership retreat in Boston. Employees from all over the world attend, shake hands, chat, and then fly back to their home countries. What followed was one of the biggest superspreader events of the pandemic.
This event spawned what became known as the Biogen strain of COVID-19, linked to 300,000 infections worldwide. Scientists traced every single case back to one person, dubbed the “index case.”
How did this happen ?
The Law of the Few
Researchers have found that in almost every system, a small minority drives the majority of outcomes. In Denver, for instance, just 5% of cars cause 55% of air pollution. The same principle applies to crime, trends, and even viruses.
In the case of COVID, Harvard researcher David Edwards found that not everyone spreads the virus equally. When he measured aerosols (tiny droplets carrying the virus) from 194 people, just 18 of them produced way more than average. The top two emitters produced 20 times more aerosols than everyone else.
A British study in 2021 confirmed this. Researchers deliberately infected 36 volunteers with COVID-19. Almost 90% of all virus particles came from just two people.
Superspreaders like the Biogen index case aren’t just unlucky—they’re biological outliers. Scientists think it could be due to saliva composition, genetics, or even age and weight. Whatever the reason, these individuals play a disproportionate role in outbreaks.
Tipping Points
It’s all about tipping points. Whether it’s a crime wave, a medical habit, or a global pandemic, there’s usually a moment when things go from manageable to massive.
Superspreaders, small-area variations, and overstories all contribute to this. They create the conditions for trends to take off or fizzle out.
Next time you see something going viral, whether it’s a TikTok dance or a major movement, think about what’s driving it. Chances are, it’s not random. There’s a pattern, a tipping point, and maybe even a few superspreaders making it happen.
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